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October 2, 2026

Comparing Apples to Apples in Texas and Iowa

Among the numerous recent surveys of the U.S. Senate race in Texas, a poll released yesterday, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company and sponsored by Fox News, stood out as it seemed to show James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, losing support.

In the new poll, Mr. Talarico led Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, by two percentage points after having a three-percentage-point lead in Fox’s survey of the race in late July. But the July result reflected where Mr. Talarico stood among registered voters, while the new release focused on likely voters. When comparing the same population — registered voters — Mr. Talarico’s lead actually grew to seven percentage points.

A similar situation played out in Fox’s polls of the Iowa Senate race. There, Josh Turek, the Democrat, led by two percentage points among likely voters in a survey released yesterday, but led by four percentage points among registered voters, matching his lead from Fox’s last survey of that race in late June.

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