Coatue just published one of the most talked-about reports in tech and finance this year.
After studying 30 bubbles over 400 years, Philippe Laffont’s $54B hedge fund concluded that AI isn’t a bubble, but an early industrial revolution.
Below are 18 key slides that capture their full argument. Each one reveals a different angle on how AI is reshaping markets, productivity, and investment logic:
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AI stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 160% since ChatGPT’s launch.
Coatue calls this “the AI premium” — still justified by fundamentals.
Energy, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure are leading the returns.
“AI power” has replaced “AI software” as the market’s growth engine.
Coatue believes the macro backdrop remains supportive.
Inflation expectations for 2025 have stabilized near 3%, easing pressure on rates.
The gap between tech and non-tech P/E multiples is wide, but within historical norms.
Unlike 1999, tech’s profits justify the premium.
Headlines warn of hype.
Coatue’s view: adoption is real, ROI is measurable, and corporate demand is accelerating.
Displacement → Boom → Euphoria → Profit taking → Panic → Crash.
Coatue’s takeaway: AI is still in the displacement phase — not euphoria.
The top 10 U.S. companies now represent 77% of GDP — up from 34% during the dot-com era.
But these giants are profitable, global, and diversified.
Corporate AI adoption rose fast, from 5% to 13% of employees.
Coatue notes a short-term plateau before the next wave of enterprise integration.
OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, Intel, and AMD are creating a circular economy of investment and spending.
Coatue calls it “the infinite money glitch” — sustainable only if ROI keeps improving.
Many “bubbles” (like the internet, electricity, or cloud) became permanent infrastructure.
AI, they argue, fits that pattern.
Compared to PCs and the internet, AI reached similar penetration in a fraction of the time.
Coatue says the adoption curve is still steep.
High concentration often signals maturity, not fragility.
AI’s largest players have strong balance sheets and multiple revenue lines.
The Nasdaq’s P/E peaked near 90x in 2000.
Today’s multiple: roughly 28x — high, but grounded in earnings.
In 1999, the top seven tech firms averaged a 67x multiple.
In 2025, it’s closer to 28x — with stronger balance sheets and cash flow.
By 2035, AI-driven industries could generate $1.9 trillion in annual revenue and 20% ROIC.
Coatue expects margins to compound as adoption scales.
Equity issuance is low compared to past bubbles.
The .com boom saw 500+ IPOs a year; today, fewer than 60.
Retail investors are borrowing again, similar to post-COVID levels.
Coatue flags this as one of the few genuine risks in the system.
AI Abundance (probability >66%): Productivity accelerates, inflation stays low, tech keeps leading.
AI Reckoning (<33%): Bubble pops, recession follows, credit stress rises.
Coatue is betting on the first.
Here are the core lessons:...
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