The 400-Year Bubble Study: Inside Coatue’s AI Report18 charts that explain why the $54B hedge fund still believes AI is early, not overvaluedCoatue just published one of the most talked-about reports in tech and finance this year. Below are 18 key slides that capture their full argument. Each one reveals a different angle on how AI is reshaping markets, productivity, and investment logic: 1. AI continues to drive markets higherAI stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 160% since ChatGPT’s launch. 2. New AI leadership is emergingEnergy, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure are leading the returns. 3. Inflation expectations are moderatingCoatue believes the macro backdrop remains supportive. 4. Tech vs non-tech: valuation spread is rationalThe gap between tech and non-tech P/E multiples is wide, but within historical norms. 5. Media says “AI is a bubble” — Coatue disagreesHeadlines warn of hype. 6. What a bubble actually looks likeDisplacement → Boom → Euphoria → Profit taking → Panic → Crash. 7. Are AI leaders too big?The top 10 U.S. companies now represent 77% of GDP — up from 34% during the dot-com era. 8. AI adoption is slowing slightlyCorporate AI adoption rose fast, from 5% to 13% of employees. 9. Vendor financing: the “infinite money loop”OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, Intel, and AMD are creating a circular economy of investment and spending. 10. Not all long-term cycles are bubblesMany “bubbles” (like the internet, electricity, or cloud) became permanent infrastructure. 11. AI is early — but adoption is massiveCompared to PCs and the internet, AI reached similar penetration in a fraction of the time. 12. Market concentration isn’t a red flagHigh concentration often signals maturity, not fragility. 13. Multiples expanded, but far below dot-com levelsThe Nasdaq’s P/E peaked near 90x in 2000. 14. 1999 vs 2025: valuations are healthierIn 1999, the top seven tech firms averaged a 67x multiple. 15. Profits justify the investmentBy 2035, AI-driven industries could generate $1.9 trillion in annual revenue and 20% ROIC. 16. IPO activity is mutedEquity issuance is low compared to past bubbles. 17. Leverage is creeping backRetail investors are borrowing again, similar to post-COVID levels. 18. The two futures of AI
Coatue is betting on the first. 10 Takeaways and Full Report (59 pages):Here are the core lessons:... Keep reading with a 7-day free trialSubscribe to The VC Corner to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives. A subscription gets you:
|






















0 Comments
VHAVENDA IT SOLUTIONS AND SERVICES WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU🫵🏼🫵🏼🫵🏼🫵🏼